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Bayes theorem

2019-12-22

[public] 1.32M views, 124K likes, 500 dislikes audio only

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Perhaps the most important formula in probability.

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An equally valuable form of support is to simply share some of the videos.

Special thanks to these supporters: http://3b1b.co/bayes-thanks

Home page: https://www.3blue1brown.com

The quick proof: /youtube/video/U_85TaXbeIo

Interactive made by Reddit user Thoggalluth: https://nskobelevs.github.io/p5js/BayesTheorem/

The study with Steve:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/185/4157/1124

http://www.its.caltech.edu/~camerer/Ec101/JudgementUncertainty.pdf

You can read more about Kahneman and Tversky's work in Thinking Fast and Slow, or in one of my favorite books, The Undoing Project.

Contents:

0:00 - Intro example

4:09 - Generalizing as a formula

10:13 - Making probability intuitive

13:35 - Issues with the Steve example

Thanks to these viewers for their contributions to translations

Gujarati: Hitesh12358, Pragna1991

Hebrew: Omer Tuchfeld

Italian: @crampaldo

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These animations are largely made using manim, a scrappy open-source python library: https://github.com/3b1b/manim

If you want to check it out, I feel compelled to warn you that it's not the most well-documented tool, and it has many other quirks you might expect in a library someone wrote with only their own use in mind.

Music by Vincent Rubinetti.

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Intro example
/youtube/video/HZGCoVF3YvM?t=0
Generalizing as a formula
/youtube/video/HZGCoVF3YvM?t=249
Making probability intuitive
/youtube/video/HZGCoVF3YvM?t=613
Issues with the Steve example
/youtube/video/HZGCoVF3YvM?t=815
3Blue1Brown 3Blue1Brown, by Grant Sanderson, is some combination of math and entertainment, depending on your disposition. The goal is for explanations to be driven by animations and for difficult problems to be made simple with changes in perspective. For more information, other projects, FAQs, and inquiries see the website: https://www.3blue1brown.com
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